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China conference hall12/28/2023 This is challenging for Xi Jinping,” he said. “So who will stay? Who will leave? It’s very, very difficult. Only Xi will definitely stay and only Li Zhanshu, who was born in 1950 and is 72 years old, will leave, he said.īut Cheng also noted that the age span among the remaining six members of the PSC was five years. Instead, several of the 15 criteria focused on loyalty to the party’s leadership.Ĭheng said the new rules make the personnel changes “simultaneously more anticipated and less predictable” than previous Congresses. There was no mention of age norms when the CCP released in late September a new set of regulations laying out the criteria for promotions and demotions. But Cheng Li, a China expert, told people attending a recent event held by the Brookings Institution in the US that he believes these age limits will not apply to members of the Politburo and the PSC this time. ![]() If the age norms are respected, at least two of the seven members of the PSC will retire, while in the Politburo, eight of the remaining 18 members will step down. The “seven up, eight down” convention states any officials aged 67 or under at the time of a party congress can be promoted, while anyone aged 68 or over is expected to retire.Īt the last congresses in 2007, 20, the party appointed no one aged 68 or older to a new term on the Politburo. In a typical year, appointments to these top jobs are dictated by a set of internal age norms for promotion and retirement. By the time the congress formally begins, the lineup of top leadership is likely to already be a done deal,” Edward Knight and Ruby Osman, researchers at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, wrote in a recent blog post. In reality, party elites have already spent the past few months – if not longer – jostling for influence behind the scenes to ensure their preferred candidates come out on top. “In theory, the very top jobs will be chosen by the hundreds of members of the Central Committee. Observers will be closely watching the appointments to the PSC. The 200 voting members of the Central Committee will then select from its ranks, the 25-member Politburo and the even more elite seven-member PSC. These delegates will appoint some 400 members to the party’s top national-level institution, the Central Committee. The congress is made up of some 2,300 delegates representing all levels of the party hierarchy across 34 provinces and regions. “Unlike his predecessors, he does not have to compete with any apparent successor, giving him broad influence over decisions.” ![]() He has already manoeuvred allies into important positions over his first two terms, giving him greater influence over the personnel appointment processes that take place behind closed doors,” Hart said, referring to appointments for the Politburo and the PSC. “Going into his third term, Xi is in a strong position to shape personnel picks for key posts. “At the 20th Party Congress, we can expect to see Xi Jinping further solidify his grip over the party, the state, and the military,” said Brian Hart, fellow at the China Power Project at the United States-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Xi is expected to retain the military title at the Party Congress and extend the state presidency during the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp parliament - the National People’s Congress - in March next year. The first gives him control of the armed forces while the second makes him the head of state. He is the chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission and the president of the People’s Republic of China. This would break a norm established by Xi’s two predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, each of whom gave up the post of general secretary after serving two full five-year terms. If this were a typical congress, Xi - who first took office in 2012 and has served two five-year terms - would be handing over the duties to someone new.īut the 69-year-old is widely expected to stay on for another term. ![]() ![]() Since China is a one-party state governed by the CCP, the party’s general secretary tends to be the paramount leader of the country.
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